A mere eight weeks prior when the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as the Villa manager scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason of the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. When Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their opening six matches, are somehow a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, even as the victories have stacked up.
According to the data, twice all season has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team that have strung together 10 in a row, Villa look curiously susceptible – but currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their star man to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened versus Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival they will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, surely, will not continue to drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be leading a title charge while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
