Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
